Beiträge in Tagungsbänden:
P. Pfaffenbichler, R. Krutak, S. Renner:
"Modelling the development of vehicle fleets with alternative propulsion technologies";
in: "eceee 2011 Summer Study: Energy efficiency first: The foundation of a low-carbon society - Conference proceedings",
eceee - European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy,
Significant improvements concerning energy efficiency and
emissions have been achieved in the past. Nevertheless, the
transport sector lacks behind the successful developments in
other sectors. Battery electric and hybrid vehicles are seen as
a promising way to increase energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels while still
maintaining motorized individual mobility. Improvements in
battery technology, decreasing vehicle prices and the market
entrance of series-production vehicles nurture hopes, but there
remains uncertainty and scepticism too.
The dynamic vehicle fleet model SERAPIS (Simulating the
Emergence of Relevant Alternative Propulsion technologies
in the car and motorcycle fleet Including energy Supply) was
developed by the Austrian Energy Agency in order to analyze
some critical aspects concerning market success of electric vehicles.
SERAPIS relies on stock flow modelling and the Systems
Dynamics software Vensim®. In each time step the number
of new vehicles entering the fleet is calculated by adding the
number of vehicles which have to be replaced and the number
of vehicles stemming from vehicle fleet growth/decline. A
multinomial LOGIT model is used to calculate the propulsion
technologies chosen for these new vehicles. SERAPIS differentiates
between electric, hybrid and internal combustion engine
for cars and electric and internal combustion for motorcycles.
The calculation of electricity consumption and supply requirements
SERAPIS has been used in a series of studies, e.g. a pre-feasibility
study for the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation
and Technology, an evaluation of the Austrian Energy
Strategy or a study concerning visions of electricity consumption
until 2050 for the Austrian electricity industry. The aim of
this paper is to present a technical model description and key
findings from the aforementioned studies.
alternative fuels, vehicles, passenger vehicles, modelling, market penetration, electric vehicles, dynamic simulation
Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank der Technischen Universität Wien.